• Thu. Mar 28th, 2024

News Infinitum

Infinitum.tech operates seven days a week. On our website you will find attractively presented lifestyle content.

Is a long-term agreement with Gaza possible?

Feb 12, 2021
hamas-kriger-illustratonsfoto-idf

Several voices in Israel have called for a long-term ceasefire with the terrorist group Hamas, which has been in control of the Gaza Strip since 2007, writes former Israeli Army Colonel (IDF) Grisha Yakubovich for MirYam Institute – a forum created for leading Israeli experts with different approaches. The forum allows experts to meet, share their expertise and exchange their views on Israel. Read more about the MirYam Institute HERE.

Yakubovich works as a political and strategic consultant for various international NGOs. He stopped his military career in 2016 as head of the Civilian Department of Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT). Read more about Yakubovich and his work HERE. He has also collaborated with Infinitum News – read more HERE.

According to Yakubovich, Israel may be willing to take the step to achieve a long-term solution with Hamas, the question is whether Hamas is willing / able to to do the same?

According to Yakubovich, it is extremely important to understand that Israel and Hamas probably have very different definitions of what a ‘prolonged ceasefire’ means.

In Israel and the West, it is understood as many years of ceasefire and economic development of Gaza, trade and a major step towards peace.

In Hamas ‘world, on the other hand, any agreement cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel will be concluded solely to serve Hamas’ short- and long-term interests. Such an agreement is unlikely to lead to an end to hostilities against Israel as long as Hamas controls only Gaza and not Judea and Samaria (West Bank) – unless Hamas changes its goals, Yakubovich writes.

According to Hamas’ perspective, a ceasefire cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel on the Gaza front does not mean an end to terrorist attacks by Hamas terrorist cells based in the West Bank, Lebanon or abroad.

Read MIFF’s article: Yoav Limor: – Hamas only temporarily deterred. – The terrorist group does not abandon their goal of annihilating Israel. Hamas’ path to that is through temporary tactical concessions. Now the ball is in Israel’s, writes Yoav Limor.

While Israel calls for Hamas to demilitarize Gaza as part of a ceasefire, it will ironically undermine the chances of a long-term ceasefire, Yakubovich writes. This is because Hamas needs its military terrorist assets to rule over other armed terrorist groups in Gaza, especially Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Salafist jihadist terrorist groups that might want to exploit the ceasefire.

For Israel, a long-term ceasefire would mean that the Israeli army (IDF) would be able to focus its resources and attention on the biggest threat, the Iranian axis. For Hamas, a ceasefire would be about securing their role as a Palestinian government entity with tangible results to present to the Palestinians, Yakubovich explains.

To understand Hamas’ dilemma in balancing for and against a long-term ceasefire cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel, it is important to understand that they may run the risk that Iran will no longer provide them with financial assistance. Iran expects its henchmen and sponsored terrorist groups to confront Israel and follow Iran’s expectations. Entering into a long-term ceasefire cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel will therefore be a breach of the agreement. A ceasefire could also create new tensions between Hamas and the Iranian-backed terrorist group PIJ in Gaza.

On the other hand, Hamas would very much like to address their pressing problems – Gaza’s ailing economy, its inadequate health care system, lack of basic services, lack of infrastructure and lack of concrete results that Hamas can show the Palestinians they have implemented. In addition, the Corona crisis is also an urgent problem that is causing problems for the Hamas regime
.

Nevertheless, Hamas would face serious challenges if it chose to enter into a long-term ceasefire cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel solely to ensure stable supply of electricity and water, lower unemployment and gain economic benefits.

Hamas needs to show the people of Gaza and the other terrorist groups in the enclave that there are more and other benefits to be gained from a long-term solution cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel. For example, securing an open port and opening Gaza’s borders for more free movement. In addition, it will be necessary for Hamas to secure the release of Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli prisons in a separate agreement, Yakubovich points out.

For Hamas, it will be crucial to market any agreement cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel as a major achievement to get Hamas leaders in Gaza and other locations to support the agreement.

Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is concerned that after 14 years in control, the terrorist group has achieved virtually nothing but war, poverty and freezing from Judea and Samaria (West Bank). That was not what Hamas wanted as their legacy, Yakubovich points out

Hamas’ plight was evident during the recent joint military exercise it held with other terrorist groups in Gaza. The message behind the exercise to Israel was that Hamas has power and should not be ignored. The exercise was also intended as a call for Israel to enter into negotiations with them.

The dramatic regional changes that led to the Abrahamic agreements between Israel and the Sunni Arab states could create new momentum and give impetus to an agreement. Qatar is a major sponsor of Hamas, moving against the Saudi Sunni Muslim axis that is interested in pulling Hamas away from Iran.

Read MIFF article: Qatar promises $ 360 million in aid to Hamas-controlled Gaza. Since 2018, Qatar has provided $ 133 million a month cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israeli approval to Gaza. Aid is seen as a stabilizing factor to prevent long-standing tensions between Israel and the terrorist group from flaring up and developing into war.

One of the obstacles on the road is Hamas’ possession of two Israeli hostages and the bodies of two fallen IDF soldiers killed during the Gaza war in 2014.

Hamas retains the Israeli hostages and the remains of fallen Israeli soldiers as a bargaining chip they will use to free Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons, if successful, it will be a major strategic victory for Hamas. Israel has no intentions of releasing a large number of Palestinian prisoners and will not proceed with broader arrangements until the release of the Israelis is secured. Hamas, on the other hand, sees the release of the prisoners and a long-term agreement cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel as two separate issues.

A perhaps even bigger question is how far Hamas is willing to go when it comes to the bigger issues.

Not only can Hamas not afford to demilitarize itself, it will also need to be recognized by Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the region as those in control of Gaza

Only in this way will Hamas be able to emerge a step away from its ideological militant tree and at the same time be able to enforce its authority over other armed terrorist groups in Gaza, Yakubovich explains.

The consequence would be that Gaza remains militarized in a realistic agreement, and a lot of money will continue to have to be poured into Gaza to ‘solve the problem’ of the militant Islamist ideology.

Just to make it even more complicated, there is a risk that Hamas will win the upcoming elections in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), which would not serve Israel’s interests as long as Hamas remains a terrorist group.

Read MIFFF’s article: Hamas leader could become new Palestinian president. Ismail Haniyeh is ahead of Mahmoud Abbas in the polls.

Yakubovich also believes it is important to keep in mind that Hamas is a strategic terrorist group with long-term goals.
This means that any potential agreement will have to go far to meet the current and future needs of the terrorist group.

That fact creates a far more difficult challenge than one might immediately think.

Yakubovich concludes as follows:
– Only a delicious recipe, prepared by the right chef, can make an agreement ‘taste’ right for all parties.

Also read: Fact check of Fathi El-Abed’s description of Gaza.
MIFF corrects raw propaganda from the Danish Palestinian Friendship Association.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *