• Tue. Feb 7th, 2023

The fear that the ayatollahs who see Israel as “little Satan” will get nuclear weapons has already cast shadows over Israel for decades.

-Iran must be stopped at all costs, argued Israeli historian Benny Morris as early as 2012.

In May 2018, 44.2 percent of Israelis said they supported a pre-emptive strike on Iran to prevent the country in developing nuclear weapons. The head of Mossad is convinced that Iran is still planning to acquire nuclear weapons.

Everyone must think about nuclear defense

The debate has not focused very much on how Israel can prepare for the day Iran already has nuclear weapons. Ori Nissim Levy is a lieutenant colonel in the Israeli reserve forces and a defense expert in nuclear weapons. He does not believe that the ayatollahs will use nuclear weapons to destroy Israel, despite repeated threats in that direction. “Their main goal is to make the regime immune to external attacks while continuing the fight for regional hegemony and spreading Tehran’s Islamist message around the world,” Levy wrote in an article published by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

All countries, not just Israel, should be aware of nuclear defense. “Over ten thousand atomic warheads are scattered all over the world. More than 51 atomic bombs are completely gone in an unknown location. To date, there have been 2,200 nuclear incidents, the world average is two a month, “Levy writes.

A nuclear bomb is not post-apocalyptic
It is uncertain whether Iran will could manage to wipe out Israel with nuclear weapons even if they try, according to the nuclear expert. “A nuclear bomb of realistic size, detonated against a city in central Israel, will not mean an end to everything and will not lead to a post-apocalyptic future. While it will be a painful blow and likely involve tens of thousands of wounded, experts say, it is possible that “only” a thousand civilians will be killed. It will be crucial for injuries and casualties whether the attack occurs at night or during the day. The time of day, whether it is on the weekend or on a weekday, is crucial for how to behave and so on. ” According to a calculation by Yehoshua Sokol, head of the Academic Forum for Nuclear Awareness (AFNA), 80 (!) Atomic bombs over Israel will result in 10 percent of the population being injured and “only” killing 300,000 people. The death toll will not increase in proportion to the number of bombs.

Levy writes: “Many of us think of dramatic images of Hiroshima and Nagasaki after the nuclear attacks there [in 1945] – images of charred land kilometer after kilometer. such pictures will not be seen in modern cities.Japanese cities in 1945 were densely populated landscapes with one- and two-story wooden and cardboard houses [‘paper houses’].

The buildings were burned by fires created by the explosion heat. most of the damage and casualties came from the huge fires that raged through the cities for several days and from flying building debris from the poorly built wooden houses that maimed those who were unprotected. “Today the situation is different. Israeli cities are built of steel, brick and concrete. Since 1975, building laws in Israel have required buildings to withstand earthquakes. From 1991, there has been a requirement that all new housing units must be equipped with shelters with 30 cm thick concrete walls. At the same time, a modern society also has new weaknesses. Fuel and gas tanks can ignite and the electrical and technological infrastructure can be severely damaged. The electromagnetic pulse from the atomic explosion will effectively knock out all electrical objects within a radius of 5-10 kilometers.

The tendon damage that follows the destruction of society can prove to be more fatal than the direct loss figures due to the explosion and radiation.

-Although Israel is a small country, most of the rescue forces and Rescue facilities outside the bombed areas are likely to remain intact and able to provide relatively quick assistance to those affected. Yet Israel must prepare not only for the immediate destruction and consequences, but for life without power and technology, Levy writes.

Preparation is important
The nuclear expert believes that the Israeli authorities need to be much better at informing the population about what they can do to protect themselves before, and especially after, a nuclear attack. Where can I find the nearest shelter? How can I ensure that water and food are not exposed to radiation? How can I communicate with the outside world, and especially with rescue services whose telecommunications and power are down?

Knowledge of what to do the day after a nuclear attack is critical to preparing people, but no one in Israel looks to be willing to talk about it, ”Levy writes. He believes that plans are being drawn up, but they will not be as effective if the population is not prepared.

-The real power of nuclear weapons lies in the ability to create fear. If a threatened country is well prepared, it can significantly reduce the ability of nuclear weapons to damage. Preparation can be even more socioeconomic than large investments in structural protection, Levy concludes. His dream is to make Israel a world leader in being best prepared for nuclear attacks.

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