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Russians in panic mode, because the Ukrainians reflected a bit of the area. The initial offensive phase continues

May 13, 2023
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If we summarize the claims of Russian telegram bloggers and observers of war, citing reports from units on the front, we are dealing with the great offensive of Ukrainians.
Columns of heavy equipment coming from the Kharkov region towards the border with the intention of getting into the territory of Russia and the attack of the city of Belogrod.
Strong beats on the Bachmut flanks, which interrupted the defense lines and threaten the disaster.
Preparations to cross Dnieper in the last phase.
Hits on Zaporozhye and in the Awdijiwka region.

dmg.news

The level of chaos and panic reports achieved such a scale that on Thursday afternoon even the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a message that nothing special was happening and “the situation is under control”.
Of course, his credibility is very small, and denials can indicate that something is really up.
However, there is no indication that we are dealing with some serious attacks of Ukrainians.
Rather, with the initial phase of the offensive, consisting of precipitating the Russians.

see video

Bachmucki drama

In fact, nothing unusual has become in the Bachmut region.
At least there are no reliable confirmations in the form of recordings and photos.
In the city itself, heavy fights are constantly underway, but the Russians have practically not moved forward for the second week.
Ukrainians stubbornly defend their last bastion in a cluster of blocks on the western edge of the city, controlling about a dozen or so percent of its entire area.
In addition, in recent days they were to carry out several small counterattacks and take some buildings from the Russians.
However, it is not sure if these were lasting success.
For their part, the Russians also report minor successes in the form of breaking to several blocks in the fortress of Ukrainians, but there is no certainty yet whether it was something permanent.
In general, there is Pat for now.
Ukrainians say that the Russians got short of breath again.
Their attacks are to be weaker, just like firing their artillery.

The situation on the flank of the city is to be different.
The Russians in January-Marcu at the price of large losses almost circled them, going far to its back, but then abandoned attempts to complete the case.
For several weeks, the Ukrainians have become active and began to carry out small local counterattacks, but about a scale like the occupation of one “resistor”, i.e. a fortified position consisting of trenches and several dugouts.
In these fights there is a 3rd assault brigade, created from people of the Azov movement.
In recent days, such attacks have been intensified and were to be successful in the form of a reflection of some of the most extended Russians in the area of the supply road leading to Bachmut.
In addition, the attacks were to be moved further from the city in the Sołedar and Majorska regions.
This caused panic in the Russians, although in practice we are talking about a total of several square kilometers of the area and the rejection of the Russian army by maybe a few hundred meters backwards in several places.
Ukrainians suggest that they have gained more area, but for now there is no confirmation.

Photo
Telegram

regardless of this, for the Russians it is clearly a shock.
The head of the Wagner Group, Jewgieże Prigożin, falls into more and more extremes every day.
Contrary to his last week’s announcements, he did not withdraw the Wagner Group from Bachmut, because he seemed to get the promised ammunition.
This week, however, she shouts again that she is not there and does not get support from the army.
He also accused the subunits of the 72nd Army Brigade of the 72rd Brigade of the Bachmut wings, which was to enable the success of the Ukrainian 3rd Brigade.
Her officers, however, say that the wagneers escaped the first and the soldiers defended themselves desperately to the end.
Evidently on the side of the Russians is a fierce internal struggle on the Wagner Group – the army, which Ukrainians only distribute defense in the city and counterattacks on the wings.

A list of recordings from the 3rd Brigade depicting fights in the Bachmut region, with complaints of Prigożyna describing how the Russian army was to escape from Ukrainians

Iga of needles

Similarly alertically, Russians react to reports from the south in the Wuhłedar region.
Ukrainians have been moving there very slowly since the end of April, in practice, most likely, entering the earth of nobody, where there were no significant Russian forces.
There are no reports of some intense fights.
The Ukrainians were to go a few kilometers ahead in a straight line in the area of the villages of Nowodonieckie and Nowomajorskie.
In the narrative of the Russians, however, it also grows up to some impact as part of a great Ukrainian offensive.

Intensive fights are traditionally taking place in the Awdijiwka region north of Donetsk.
Last week, the Ukrainians were to reject the Russians a bit, and in this they were to attack again in several directions.
However, there is no evidence that they are successful.
It has been confirmed, however, that the Russians have been controlling the small village of Kamianka east of Awdijiwka for some time.
However, this does not have a significant impact on the situation in the area.

situation in the south in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian progress in the Wuhłedar region can be seen marked with a blue arrow in the lower part of the map
Photo.
Militarland.net

The Russians were to achieve some limited successes in the Siewierska region north of Bachmut.
There was a recording confirming that they took a small industrial plant near the village of Biohoriwka, where they try to move forward from January, but without significant effects.
Ukrainians say that a little further south in the area of the town of Spirne, the enemy launched a strong attack, but was broken and lost a lot of equipment.

Some Russian bloggers on a telegram are additionally alerting about the extensive Ukrainian preparations for pushing Dnieper in the Chersonia region and the Kachowka dam.
The accumulation of crossing funds and branches is to be underway.
However, there are no reliable signals indicating the possibility of such an operation that would be something difficult and risky for Ukrainians.

In addition to the described situations, it is constantly stable on the front.
Uphill fight, fire, harassment of drones.
In the north in the Kremienna-Swatowe-Kupiańsk region, it is now relatively calmly.
In the south in the region of Chersonia and Zaporozhoes there are regular reports with particularly intense artillery fire and entering the earth, like Wuhłedar.
However, there is no question of any serious offensive activities on the part of Ukrainians.

As part of the stress of Russians, Ukrainians in recent weeks have started to throw a parachute landing exercise to the network and exceeding water obstacles.
To make it even greater uncertainty, what they can do.

Shaping the battlefield

what we observe is rather the continuation of the first phase of the Ukrainian offensive, which aims to prepare the appropriate conditions for the right strokes.
It is about precipitating the Russians, sowing doubts about the intentions of the Ukrainian army, undermining their unity and morale.
Optimally about the Russian command to make some hasty decisions and, for example, referring reserves for bad sections of the front, where Ukrainians are now only scratching activity, and they really do not intend to do anything more.
For example, it can be Bachmut, where the Ukrainian army can try to create the impression that he wants to roll the Russian wings.
If the Russians send meals, then they may be missing somewhere else.
If they do not send, then Ukrainians may bounce more terrain and will also have some profit.
Americans call it “shaping the battlefield”.

you can also see the expressiona change in moods.
After a difficult and doubtful winter, Ukrainians regain vigor with the increase in their army’s activity.
Russians are the opposite.
After a few months of severe losses, which gave virtually no significant profits and in the face of activation, the fears giving the impression of self -confident Ukrainians are growing.
Occasionally, there is even a panic eruption in the rune (briefly Russian Internet) as in the last few dozen hours.

The next stages will probably be intensifying attacks on Russian facilities in order to disorganize command and logistics as seriously as possible.
Including probably using just provided British Maneuvering rockets of Storm Shadow.
Then there may be stronger attacks in several directions, some of which will be only a fool.
Only then will we find out where the Ukrainians really put the main emphasis on their offensive.
At the same time, it is possible that it will not be a great tearing of the Russian front and invading deep into tens of kilometers per days, but slowly breaking through defensive lines and an attempt to accelerate the destruction of Russian troops.

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