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The first clear success of the Russians at Awdijiwka. Banging with the head sometimes crumbles the wall

Mar 17, 2023 , , ,

However, it was not great and there was no major change in the situation on the front.
However, there is a risk that the lying of Donetsk, Awdijwka, will change into another Bachmut over time.
For now, however, this is a very distant and pessimistic vision.
In general, the Russians have been doing the same as for almost two months.
They press Ukrainians on a wide front, but suffer serious losses in the name of modest profits.


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Bachmut, wagnercs closer to the center

The largest are those in the Bachmut region.
Ukrainians stabilized the situation two weeks ago, withdrawing from the eastern districts of the city and strengthening the defense of the corridor to the West with the help of fresh forces.
However, they did not significantly change the balance of the potentials of both parties or the trajectory of events.
They only slowed down their development.
The situation is systematically called heavy or critical by Ukrainian soldiers themselves.
In fights in the city, they are to suffer severe losses and struggle with serious deficiencies of weapons and ammunition.
The Russians probably suffer even harder losses, and the capture of the city and its surroundings must be very expensive for them.

Over the past week, the hardest fights took place on the northern and southern edge of the city center.
The Russians made some progress, but counted in hundreds of meters.
Members of the Wagner Group photographed, among others, in the Azom Hall, in the same place, where at the end of December the meeting of President Volodymyr Zelanski with the city’s defenders took place.
In the south, the Russians moved forward in the area of the city cemetery.
Both of these points are about 4 kilometers away from each other.
In addition, the Russians are to start to try to cross the Bachmutka River, which is the eastern edge of Ukrainian defense.
For now without effect.

wagnerists in Zakłady Azom

outside the city borders, the Russian army records noticeable progress in fights northwest of him.
He managed to capture a small Wylizniańskie village and move the front a few hundred meters in various places.
Fighting is currently taking place on the approach to the band of small hills stretching west of Bachmut, which are a convenient defensive line for Ukrainians.

situation in the Bachmut region.
Zakłady Azom is in the place of the northern red arrow reconciled in the city.
Cemetery in the south, where there is an arrow in green areas

map in a higher resolution

continuous defense of an almost encircled city, instead of retreating to these hills, is invariably the subject of hot discussions.
The commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces directly supervising the fighting in Donbas, however, General Oleksandr Syrski declared explicitly that staying in Bachmut and binding significant Russian forces there is necessary in the context of preparation for planned offensive activities in spring.
Soldiers in the city may have a different opinion on this subject, but this is the fate of the soldier.
Observers in front of computer monitors are not fed up with the knowledge of the Ukrainian army to assess such a decision.

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step out of the city-forty

second place where Russian pressure is currently the largest is Awdijiwka.
The city is located about 50 kilometers south of Bachmut.
Less than 10 kilometers from Donetsk.
The Russians in this area did not manage to break through the Ukrainian defensive lines on the weapon suspension line from 2015 at all.
Even if they did it, they are only partially and still at the waist about 10 kilometers from this line.
This is not due to a lack of attempts, but simply from a strong Ukrainian defense, on which the troops of so -called Donetsk separatists have already completely bled.
Now “separatist” is only by name, because they are filled mainly with Russian conscripts.

Despite serious losses, the Russians repeat the attacks and conduct heavy artillery fire, and sometimes even carry out raids.
Ukrainians say that the situation in Awdijiwka and the immediate area is difficult.
The Russians managed to get a small village of Krasnohoriwka over the last week, located outside the city.
To the lap of Awdijiwka still far, but clearly the Russians are trying to do the same as in Bachmut, i.e. bypass the city and cut them off to force Ukrainians to retreat, or destroy them in the lap.
The corridor leading to the city is currently just below 10 kilometers wide.
Looking from the beginning of the war, the pace of progress of the Russians is snails, but over the past month the pressure has increased significantly.

region of awdiwiwka.
The newly conquered village is visible north of the city, where a red arrow is also marked indicating attempts to further attack the Russians

map in a higher resolution

hard fights, although at a lower intensity, they take place 25 kilometers further southwest in the ruins of Marinka.
There are practically no entire building there and both sides are fierce fights for every pile of debris.
Weekly progress takes the form of crossing the street and capture the ruins on its other side.
However, it cannot be denied that the street on the street, the Russians systematically displace Ukrainians.
Marinka is very long, however, she is about 4 kilometers on the east-west axis, so the fighting for it has been going on from the beginning of the war.

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Ukrainian attack on a quiet episode

Another several dozen kilometers to the southwest Russians stubbornly attack Wuhłedar.
The end of the second month of their completely unsuccessful strikes is approaching this point, which only brought them hard losses in people and equipment.
And the occupied cluster of small allotments and single -family houses without any meaning.
The ratio of losses in this place must be extremely unfavorable for the Russians, but despite this they are directed to this episode, and once after a while they do the same, with the same effect.
Without looking for some alternative solution.
It is difficult to rationally understand the reasons for this, but we are probably dealing here with a stereotypical Russian/Soviet lack of flexibility and respect for the life of soldiers.

an unusual event continued to the west, already on Zaporozhye, where there has been relative peace since last spring.
Ukrainians attacked in the area of the village of Nowodanyliwka, next to the town of Orichiw.
Recordings show that they lost three or four armored vehicles and a number of people difficult to determine.
On the part of the Russians, there was a comment that losses of losses, but it was a relatively successful trip or recognition of the buoy.
The Ukrainians were to easily reach the first Russian defense line, take trenches, then be detained and rejected with losses when they tried to go further.
At the same time, they were not to get to any minefields, which caused the most comments, because it would seem that the Russian defensive lines at Zaporozhye would be packed with them after more than half a year of preparation.
When the Russians are trying to attack in this area, their biggest bane is the faces that Ukrainians set up, wherever they can.

The place of the Ukrainian expensive attack is eloquent.
This is the episode of the front closest to the strategically important city of Tokmak, which is an important node point for Russian defense in this area.
He also stands on the road to the key to the south of the key Melitopol.
Ukrainians either probed the Russians on this key section, or in this way try to confirm them in the belief that this one is the most threatened or that the defense is already so strong that it does not need to be strengthened.
Seemingly suchmaking more sense impacts may be a greater idea.

Recording of a Ukrainian attack.

The last fragment of the front to describe is the north, i.e. the Kreminna-Swatowe-Kupiańsk region.
However, there is not much relevant information about it.
In the Kreminna region and nearby forests, Russians have been trying to attack, but the effects for weeks virtually zero.
Ukrainian defense is held firmly.
Similarly everywhere else.
There were only reports that in the very north behind Kupiańsk, the Russians clearly increased the pressure and try to move, but this did not bring noticeable exchanges of the situation compared to the end of January.

situation at Zaporozhye.
The place of Ukrainian expensive recognition is shown by a blue arrow.
Tokmak is south of her, on the verge of a map Photo.

map in a higher resolution

trial time

In the background of events on the front, an intensive discussion is taking place among observers and experts about how serious losses suffer Ukrainians and in what state the Ukrainian army is.
Will it be able to go to the offensive again in spring.
Ukrainians themselves clearly signal the desire to conduct it.
The question is whether it is only rhetoric without coverage in available means or a real plan.
In the American daily Washington Post, an article appeared based on conversations with Ukrainian officials and military officials, which shows that we are dealing with the former.
The armed forces of Ukraine are to be so exhausted after winter that unable to any offensive actions in the coming months.
The main thesis of the text, however, met with criticism, including Ukrainian military active on a telegram or Twitter.
According to them, the painted image is too pessimistic and does not reflect full reality.

One can deduce one of the numerous disputes and discussions.
The armed forces of Ukraine are in a difficult position, suffer severe losses and suffer from lack of equipment and ammunition.
The spirit of the soldiers declined, especially those on the front in Donbas, for more than four months without noticeable successes, but full of sacrifices and losses.
However, this is not the fullness of the image.
It is not known what forces the Ukrainian command is holding in the reserve.
Assuming that the goal of Ukraine is to go to the offensive in spring/summer, it would be logical to keep the defense with minimal forces and means to be able to keep them as much as possible.
For soldiers now withstanding Russian pressure, such a perspective is a slight consolation.

It remains to believe in the existence and implementation of some far -reaching plan on the Ukrainian side.
The Russians seem to act without such ideas, throwing themselves to relatively weak attacks on many sections of the front, raising strength just reproduced after the losses in 2022.
May they bleed the most and thus prepare the ground for Ukrainian revenge.

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