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Why must Israel stop Iran in Syria and Lebanon?

Oct 9, 2018
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In recent years, Iran, in cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation with local militias and further reinforced with Shia Muslim fighters from several other countries, has been successful in taking control of major areas of Yemen and Iraq. The Iranian advance is motivated by promoting Shia Muslim faith and way of life, as well as strengthening Shia Muslim minorities in the Arab world.

But the goal is also to create regional supremacy, and here the Iranians draw inspiration from their history back from the Persian Empire. “The Persians have a rich culture and a long history that surpasses other Arab countries, perhaps with the exception of Egypt,” Yaacov Amidror wrote in a comprehensive article published in English by The Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies on September 16, 2018. Amidror is a former Major General and served as National Security Adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from 2011 to 2013. As a key contributor to the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, Amidror remains close to key decision-makers in Israel’s foreign and defense policy. Here, MIFF reproduces some of the main points from Amidror’s article.

The goal is to destroy Israel

Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran’s official goal has been to destroy Israel.

– Because the campaign against Israel has religious motives, it can sometimes seem illogical. The Iranians, or at least Iranian decision-makers, will invest huge energy and huge sums in this campaign. They are prepared to take the risk of armed conflict cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>cooperation-with-israel/' target='_blank'>with Israel at a high price. This despite the fact that Israel and Iran have no significant conflict over land, writes Amidror.

Why does Iran view Israel as “little Satan”? The hatred does not just come from Israel’s cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation with the Shah’s security forces in the 1960s and 70s. The Iranians see Israel as a Western bastion in the Muslim world. If they succeed in weakening Israel, or even destroying Israel, it will make Iran’s goal of regional control and domination much easier to achieve. Israel’s new alliances with Sunni Arab states make it even more important for Iran to weaken Israel. If Iran is to succeed in becoming a big brother in the Middle East, they must show that they can fight Israel more effectively than the other Arab countries have been able to. The war against the Jewish state remains popular with the Arab population, and the more aggressively Iran acts against Israel, the more points they get on the account.

“History has taught the realists among Israel’s leaders to believe in other leaders who say they want to destroy the Jewish state,” Amidror wrote. The Iranian drone attack on Israel in February 2018 and the continued military expansion in Syria show what risk Iranian leaders are willing to take in the war against Israel.

Amidror divides Iran’s activities against Iran into visible and invisible activity.

Iran’s visible activity against Israel has three main elements

  • Strengthen Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities as much as possible

Iran and Syria have transferred advanced military equipment to the terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon. Almost every advanced weapon system that the Syrians have bought from Russia has been forwarded to Hezbollah, writes Amidror. “The Russians apparently know nothing about these transfers, but Russia could clearly have had a better overview.” Hezbollah has more than 120,000 rockets. Many of these have a reach that allows them to reach all the major cities of Israel.

In recent years, there has been a focus on improving the accuracy of Hezbollah rockets. The technology comes from Iran, and is being put into production in Syria and Lebanon. Precision missiles that could hit Israel’s vulnerable infrastructure or densely populated areas pose a major threat. “That is why Israel has invested heavily in building a three-tier missile defense system at a cost of 80-120 billion. If war breaks out, Israel will be forced to strike with great force and use all available means to neutralize as much as possible of Hezbollah’s missile capacity as soon as possible. ” Amidror stresses that Iran must take responsibility for the major consequences such a war will have for Lebanon’s civilian population. “Iran is willing to fight Israel at the expense of every villager in Lebanon, even though he is a Shia Muslim.”

UN force UNIFIL has done nothing to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding Lebanon after 2006. In a future conflict, Israel will have learned that it cannot rely on a similar UN resolution as in 1701. The resolution prohibits new strengthening of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

  • Establish a military presence in Syria and create a supply corridor from Iran to the Mediterranean

Hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers, backed by thousands of Shia Muslim militia soldiers, are already in place in Syria. Iran’s plan is to create a Tehran – led military network in Syria, which is not subject to the Syrian authorities in Damascus.

Iran is also strengthening its presence by relocating a large number of Shia Muslims into the Syrian territories that many Sunni Muslims have left. The authorities in Damascus refuse to allow many refugees to return to their original territories. “Syria will soon become an Iranian outpost if Assad or a strong foreign entity, such as Russia, does not stop this process led by Iran.”

To strengthen Hezbollah and Iran-controlled militias in Lebanon and Syria, Iran is trying to secure control of a supply corridor through Iraq. Despite the US military presence in eastern Syria, Iran is getting ever closer to achieving this goal.

After Iran secures control of Syria and Iraq, the Revolutionary Guards will no doubt increase their pressure on Jordan, Amidror believes. He sees US sanctions with Iran as extremely important, but they do nothing to hinder Iran’s build-up of forces in Lebanon and Syria.


Iran is willing to support Sunni Muslim movements, such as Hamas, if only that gives them an extra chance to hit Israel. If the Palestinians get their own state and Hamas gets the power, what will be able to prevent Iran from turning the West Bank into a military fortress that threatens Israel, just as it has done in Lebanon? asks Amidror.

Iran’s invisible activity against Israel

  • Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles

Due to sanctions and the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been delayed. But in 7 years, the restrictions in the nuclear deal will expire. By that time, Iran will have more accurate and long-range missiles, and have centrifuges that are 10 to 20 times more efficient.

Israel’s revelations of Iran’s nuclear archives reveal that the country has had a military nuclear program. It also shows that knowledge was stored with the intention of being able to resume the program.

What assessments must Israel make?

Iran’s goal of creating regional supremacy will be much easier to achieve under a nuclear umbrella. “Iran can confidently expect that even the United States will hesitate to confront a military nuclear power,” Amidror writes. As soon as Iran has nuclear weapons, the country and its allied militia groups may exhibit tougher behavior toward Israel, but much less concern for a response.

Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani has said, “The day Iran has nuclear weapons, the West must pack up its strategy. For a single atomic bomb can destroy Israel completely, while Israel’s counterattack can only partially harm the Muslim world.” If Iran gets nuclear weapons, Israel will almost certainly be forced to accept Iranian measures, writes Amidror.

In order to acquire nuclear weapons, Iran must reduce Israel’s willingness and ability to take a high risk of halting nuclear plans. This is the main explanation for the build-up of forces in Lebanon and Syria and the cooperation/' target='_blank'>cooperation with the terrorist groups in the Palestinian community. As soon as possible, and at the latest when the nuclear deal expires, Iran wants to have such a threatening conventional force as close to Israel as possible that it deters Israel from stopping its nuclear program with military force . Tehran’s goal is to ensure good military control in Syria as well as in Lebanon.

Looking at this strategic picture, one can understand Israel’s air operations in Syria in recent years. The intent of these targeted bombings has been to halt the supply of advanced weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon and to stop Iranian force building in Syria and especially in the Golan. If Iran becomes too strong in Syria, it could prevent Israel from hitting Iran’s nuclear program in the future. If Iran can hit Israel with precision missiles from Syria and Lebanon, Israel’s strategic situation will deteriorate significantly. “Israel on prevent it for a every pri”even if an Israeli attack were to lead to war – that is, a major operation with strong resistance in Syria and Lebanon, along with massive and painful attacks on Israel’s home front,” Amidror writes.

Israel is willing to run the risk of war to stop Iran’s attempts to create a war machine in Syria, he believes. This applies to all of Syria – a country that is more than 1,500 kilometers from Tehran, but only 250 kilometers from Tel Aviv. Amidror believes that Israel has the right to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran in Syria if the need arises or an appropriate occasion arises – if the intention is to remove what should scare Israel from stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

Israel’s challenge, Amidror believes, is to ensure freedom of operation in Syria despite the presence of Russian forces, and to get the United States to participate actively in the operations. Without this diplomatic support, Israel will find it difficult to operate in an area where two great powers are militarily present.

“Iran is one of the most complicated and dangerous threats Israel has faced in its 70-year existence. The Irish must win this battle against Iran in one way or another,” Amidror concludes.

Sources and Notes

Translated by Jane Hoffmann from Conrad Myrland’s article on miff.no on October 2, 2018.

See also here on miff.dk: “ You should support Israel, because Israel is the only country in the world that is constantly threatened with annihilation ” – an overview of Iran’s threats with many references you can use to deepen his knowledge with.

And “ That’s why Iran supports Palestinian terrorist groups r”

Amidror’s long, detailed article is also a good resource for those particularly interested: “ The Logic of Israel’s Actions to Contain Iran in Syria and Lebanon

Eraim Inbar, a colleague of Amidror at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, has on October 4, 2018 predicted that a war between Israel and Iran is inevitable ( English ) .

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