The Iranian supported terrorist organization, Hizbollah’s Missilarsenal, according to analyst and Veteran journalist, Yoav Limor, one of the only threats that the Israeli public is not fully aware of. The threat is strategic and can force Israel to perform a preventive Israeli attack, despite the threat of nuclear weapons, Limor points out in the newspaper Israel Hayom. According to Limor, it is, the most pressing problem as the Israeli army’s overkommand facing today.
Read MIFF elaborate article on the terrorist organization and how Iran has a finger in the game here.
Limor emphasizes that Israel does not want to start a war to the north. It does not make Hezbollah, either. Since 2006, the parties have built up a mutual balance and deterrence along the border of Lebanon where Hezbollah is located. Hezbollah has now hesitated to do serious about their threats of revenge after the killing of one of their warriors in Damascus airport last summer. Also Israel continues with caution and has not responded to Hezbollah’s attempt to shoot down an Air Force Ron over Lebanon.
Read Also: Benny Gantz to Hezbollah: – Don’t test us. Israel’s Defense Minister has made it clear to the terrorist organization Hezbollah that Israel will attack “anyone testing us”.
Behind the restraint of the terrorist organization prepares both parties, however, on war that can break out at any time: The killing of Hezbollah warrior last year in Syria can Hezbollah attacks against Israeli soldiers or civilian. It will force Israel to respond again when it will happen will depend on how many nerves there and yet non-tested containing mechanisms. It is no coincidence that the IDF exercise two weeks ago and the Air Workout last week simulated such a scenario, writes Limor.
Hezbollah got more poeters during the second Lebanon war. Publicly claims Hezbollah not surprisingly that they won the war – the logic of a terrorist organization is that it does not lose is a victory. According to limor, the war forced the terrorist organization to internally look at the strokes they got during the war. Hizbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah admitted at that time in a rare moment that he would not have abducted the Israeli soldiers if he had been aware of the consequences in advance.
Hezbollah will have the fighting into Israeli territory
as any serious organization (and Hezbollah is a very serious terrorist organization) deployed the organized process of study and learning. As for their defense, they found that they are powerless to Israel’s air superiority and precision: in the Dahiyeh neighborhood in southern Beirut, which is the terrorist organization’s stronghold, about 180 buildings and other goals were hit, all precisely. The terrorist organization was also surprised by the width of the Israeli intelligence service, which, at the beginning of the war, meant that Israel managed to hit Hezbollah’s middle and long-distance acets and thus stop them in targeting their attacks against goal south of Haifa Bay.
Hizbollah was very pleased with his offensive abilities: Israel was hit by over 4000 rockets, there were also several direct goals that were hit, for example, the train yard in Haifa (eight killed) and the reservists’ focal point at Kfar Giladi (12 killed). Hezbollah also learned that it is about moving the fighting into Israeli territory. The attack tunnels who were discovered two years ago along the Lebanese border, should give the group the opportunity to “conquer Galilee” and win the perceptual war in his earliest stages, underline limitor.
Iran has made Hizbollah to the most powerful terrorist in the world
after another Lebanon war and by complete ignoring the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which introduced full embargo against Hezbollah weapon smuggling, launched the terrorist organization A massive logistics surgery with just under DKK 7 billion from Iran in your pocket. The money was used to acquire tens of thousands of rockets that meant Hezbollah became the most powerful terrorist in the world
. “Terrorist army” is often used in IDF, even though the term according to Limor is discussed – some experts believe that it gives the organization too much credit because, after all, it is a terrorist organization that is not responsible for a government.
According to updated reviews, Hezbollah has between 120,000-140,000 short-distance rockets (range of about 50 kilometers) – that is, the rockets can reach northern Israel, including Haifa Bay and Tiberias. Hezbollah has several thousand medium distance rockets (range of about 90 kilometers), they can reach Sharon’s coastal and northern suburbs for Gush Dan (Central Israel); And several hundred long distance rockets and missiles (reach of hundred kilometers), including scud missiles from Syrian military stocks that can hit goals throughout Israel. Saadam Hussein fired through several months scud missiles into Israel from Iraq during the first Iraq war in 1991. That time, the United States asked Israel not to answer again on the attacks.
Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles are scattered throughout Lebanon. The terrorist organization’s short-distance rockets are mainly stored in the country’s southern part in the area near the Israeli border to maximize their reach. They are hidden in people’s homes in 230 Shiamuslim villages, ready to be activated with a moment’s notice. It is from here Hezbollah intends to carpet bomb galilee and paralyzing the area. If IDF decides to go into the Lebanese villages on Earth to stop the plan, they will be greeted by several fortifications and ambush.
The other missiles made in Iran and Syria are scattered throughout Lebanon. The longer the reach, the longer Hezbollah can store them from the border with Israel. It makes it very difficult to remove the missiles and much more challenging for Israel’s intelligence services and air force, adds limor.
Israel’s air defense is not built to cope with such a large amount of rockets. As a rule of thumb, it is designed to capture all areas, but the majority of its energy will focus on capturing long-distance missiles and defending strategic locations. Israel’s missile defense Iron Dome is designed to stop short-range rockets – for example from Gaza. David’s sling is designed to stop missiles with medium range. The missile defense systems also have the task of addressing this threat. David’s sling is also responsible for capturing crazy missiles. The systems must also be able to distinguish between precision and not precision controlled missiles and prioritize to stop them as needed.
Hizollah’s Plan for Israel ruled by Iran
The purpose of Hezbollah’s enormous missilarenal is to deter Israel from starting a war. In fact, however, it is part of a more comprehensive plan, which was led by now deceased commander in Iran’s secret Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani who was murdered in Iraq last year by the Americans. His idea was to surround Iran’s enemies from all directions with a terrorist missile threat, and Hezbollah’s Arsenal was just a component of the plan. Read more about the murder of Soleimani here.
Iranian support for the terrorist groups Hamas and Pij in Gaza – part of larger plan
Iran’s support for the terrorist groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Pij) in Gaza is part of a larger plan. Iran will strengthen another front towards Israel in Syria consisting of militias operating on Iran’s order. The idea is to build fleet, air and land bases manned with Afghan and Pakistani warriors, armed them significantly (mainly with rockets, but not only) and perform attacks against Israel.
Islamic Jihad says they got direct order from Iran to attack Israel. Qassem Soleimani provided the terrorist group with weapons and gave them attack order.
IDF: – Hamas and Pij have built up great weapons senal. The terrorist group has several thousand rockets, controlled missiles and drones. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) also features war.
Israel has noticed the trend over time. Many of Israel’s air attacks in recent years have focused on removing Iran’s military presence, not just on Syrian territories
Um close to the border but throughout the country. For example, Israel’s air defense (IAF) was accused of last month to attack infrastructure in the Deir Ez-Zor region near Syria-Iraq border, where the militias were stationed, but have since been forced to move east against Iraq after they Unable to get a foothold deep inside Syria. It was the first time, Israeli fighter aircraft attacked the part of Syria since they destroyed the nuclear reactor there in September 2007.
Israel’s determination When it comes to Syria, is a consequence of their failure in Lebanon, writes Limor. Up to the end of 2012, Israel so worried without responding when Hezbollah armed, because the political apparatus in Israel feared a new war to the north. Declarations from Israel’s leaders according to the second Lebanon war that “Hezbollah will not be allowed to rebuild their strength”, proved to be unfounded. Today, a monster is built north, adds limor.
Syrian Civil War changed the game rules
The Syrian civil war changed the picture. After a period of orientation, Israel understood that they had an option – and that it was time to act. Under the password “Foreign sources”, reports of thousands of Israeli air attacks in Syria came. The first attacks were created shock waves, today such attacks are hardly reported every time they take place. The attacks are anything but normal: they are each a complex and often hazardous operation that can result in a crashed aircraft or civil loss. The fact that it does not happen (apart from a case where an F-16 aircraft was hit and the pilots safely in addition to Israeli territory in 2018), evidence IAF’s absolute superiority, underline limitor.
Hezbollah armed to the teeth after another Lebanon war
after Hezbollah armed to the teeth in the wake of the second Lebanon war, they concluded that they were “over-saturated” of missiles and began to invest in improving their precision capacities. The term “precision” can be misleading to those who are not experts in the field, explain limor, yet it is important to understand what it means. The majority of Hezbollah and Hamas’ current missile serenal consists of “stupid” statistical rockets. The person who fires them cannot control where they will hit, to cause real damage, a large number of rockets must be fired. Therefore, almost half of the rockets landed by Hamas during Operation Protective Edge in 2014 in open areas or in Gaza. The same thing happened when SadaAm Hussein carpeted Israel for several months with Scud missiles during the first Gulf war in 1990-91.
The danger of precision emissils
precision emissils are something completely different. They are equipped with navigation systems that help them hit goals with significant accuracy. One of Hezbollah’s main missiles is M-600 (“Tishrin”), manufactured in Syria and based on the Iranian Fateh-110 missile. The missile has many variants, it has a range of 250 kilometers and can carry a warhead on half a ton. The missile accuracy is currently on a radius of some meters from the target. Other missiles are precise in a radius of less than 100 meters. This means that if Hezbollah places the Missile’s goal at IDF’s headquarters in Tel Aviv (Kirya), missile countries wherever in the central area of Azrieli Towers, the Sarona market, Ichilov hospital and street Ibn Gavi (densely populated street situated in NORD TEL AVIV).
Hezbollah aims to lame Israel
if the goal is to kill the most possible civilians, such a missile is exactly enough, but do you want to paralyze a country, more than that. Hezbollah aims to do by Israel what they did at Hezbollah under the second Lebanon war: Hitting strategic facilities (especially power plants), military bases (specifically Air Force), Government Buildings (mainly in Jerusalem), in order to show their victory. Precision is therefore critical, emphasizing limor.
It was Iad Mugniyeh who stood behind Hezbollah’s aggressive missile build-up project after another Lebanon war. After he was murdered February 2008 in Damascus, the murder of him was attributed to Mossad and CIA. Mu.
Gniyeh’s cousin and brother-in-law Mustafa Badredinne took his place. In May 2016, the Badredinne was also murdered in a common Hezbollah Iran operation. The official message was due to his love for alcohol, women and siders. According to Limor, he became murdered because he disagreed with soleimani over Hezbollah’s involvement in the Syrian civil war. His death thus placed the missile project in Nasrallah’s and Soleimani’s hands.
In the beginning Hezbollah’s quest was to acquire precision emissils clumsy. The precision missiles were manufactured in Iran and flown to Damascus. In 2013, as current Minister of Defense Benny Gantz was IDF Staff and Amir Eshel was head of the Air Force, Israel launched a campaign to prevent precision capabilities from being able to come to Lebanon. The campaign remains in progress.
The attacks in Lebanon rose in 2014 and decreased again in 2015 after Russia joined the struggle to save the Assad regime. In 2016, an increase in the fighting happened after Israel realized that they had a significant game room, despite Russian presence in Syria. At the same time, soleimany realized that Isis had been defeated, the Assad regime had been rescued and he saw an opportunity to anchor the Iranian hegemony in Syria. He had three primary goals: to establish a foothold for Iran and their henchmen on Syrian soil, indoctrine the Syrian people through Shiite clergy flown in from Iran and take control of Syria’s weapon industry.
Iran and Hezbollah utilizes well-developed weapon industry in Syria
Syria has a developed weapon industry that can be traced back to Russian expertise and many years of preparation of the Syrian army for war against Israel.
Soleimanis Idea was simple: to produce missiles on Syrian soil, whereby the threat of attacks on Iranian arms shipments could be avoided. Iran would finance the project, Syria would produce missiles and from there they would be transferred to Lebanon. Assad was powerless opposite the plan. Assad owed his life and more than 531 billion to Iran and Hezbollah for equipment, help and loans. In addition to it, the missile factories would give thousands of sourders job and fixed income.
Israel found out what was going on and began with methodological attacks against weapon facilities and other manufacturing infrastructure in Syria. According to published reports, many attacks have been performed.
Israeli determination to attack was met with Iranian decision to produce missiles. The manufacture was changed and moved to Lebanon: They would not produce the entire missile from scratch, Hezbollah cannot because it requires a developed military industry with researchers and large factories. Instead, they chose a conversion process: you take an old model of a “stupid” rocket smuggled from Iran and Syria, adding a GPS, wing tips and a small computer so that it can be controlled exactly towards the target.
All components can be purchased on the Internet, but Hezbollah receives them from Iran. The computer itself is based on an algorithm with very simple aerodynamic equations. The conversion process is also quite simple and takes several days and probably requires more adjustments and calibrations, and the wing tips are to be tested to ensure proper movement.
According to various reports, the conversion process can produce a rocket with a precision radius 20-30 meters. Exactly enough to hit a power plant or building, but not enough to fire the missile through, for example, a particular window or murder someone. It would require another level of technological sophistication and real-time intelligence features that only the world’s military superpowers possess, emphasize limor.
The simplicity with which they can get your fingers in the necessary components of the conversion process, specific laptops, testify to the complex task IDF facing and the size of their success. Ultimately, the large number of air strikes attributed to Israel targeted the small laptops, without them, they would “stupid” rockets could not hit exactly. Considering the quality of the Required Real Time Informat
Ion, the level of risk and precision that the Air Force has performed them is impressive after all standards, writes Limor.
Hezbollah fired daily 200 rockets into Israel under the second Lebanon War
during the second Lebanon war fired Hizbollah daily about 200 rockets into Israel. At the next war, Hezbollah plans to fire a thousand rockets. Israel does not have the ability to capture them all, that is, the damage towards the Galilæge region will be huge. On the other hand, the potential damage caused by each rocket relatively low, protective room and safety room (special spaces of reinforced concrete, but far from all Israelis has access to them) should according to limor provide sufficient protection.
Israel works on several fronts to stop Hizbollah’s plans for the next war
as part of Israel’s war against Hezbollah’s plans, Israel not only uses military means. They also use diplomacy and international pressure. Israel fights financially and leads PR campaign. Twice in recent years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly revealed the existence and the location of Hezbollah’s precision mismatics in Lebanon. The first time was in 2018 under the UN General Assembly when he revealed three facilities. The second time was in 2020 during his speech to the general meeting, where he revealed other facilities, including rocket factory in the heart of a civilian neighborhood in Beirut. Read more here: Israeli TV: Hizbollah would use Beirut’s ammonium nitrate against Israel. According to the TV channel, the terrorist group would use it in a third Lebanon war. And here: Nasrallah has threatened Haifa with similar explosion as in Beirut. – The Haifa harbor is the same as an atomic bomb, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2017.
Hezbollah denied the accusations, intended for Lebanese ears: The situation in Lebanon has never been worse, and the country experiences the worst economic and social crisis ever. Hezbollah, which has been part of the Lebanese Government for several years and in many respects controls the whole country, is perceived as partially responsible for the situation and it is doubtful that the Lebanese publicity grab sympathy for those who will trigger another disaster by starting war again toward Israel. The Lebanese remains traumatized after devastating explosion in Beirut Harbor last summer, points out limor.
According to assessments, the next war against Israel will include several countries
Israel’s decision to acquire new aircraft and interceptor missiles for the Air Force due to assessments regarding the North Front, where the Institute for National Security Studies in their ANNUAL REPORT pointed out that a war is likely to break out. It is believed that such war will not be limited to Lebanon and will also include Syria (and perhaps Iraq). It is possible that Syria himself will act against Israel to repay Iran and Hezbollah for their generous help during the civil war. It is also possible that Shiite militias in Iraq will fire missiles against Israel, Iranian-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen may also want to join the war, assessing limor.
Israel is not only threatened by missile attacks and rockets. Israel is also threatened by cross-border infiltration. Many of Hezbollah’s underground attack tunnels have been stopped by Israel, but the threat has disappeared, Hizbollah’s Elie Unit, Radwan is working to attack Israeli territory and take control of all societal or military outnairs. In an attempt to counter the threat, Israel has built high walls to support certain parts of the border. Also read: EU MPs: Support Israel in the fight against Hezbollah and Iran. A delegation consisting of eight EU MPs visited a Hezbollah attacking tunnel and an Iron Dome battery.
In recent years, Hezbollah has also invested in drones, they already used them under the second Lebanon war and have since only become better at using drones. Today, terror organization has various small drones, including those who can wear explosives several hundred kilometers.
IDF must always be a step in front of the enemies
IDF has more tools D
e can use to counter the threat. One of them locks on their frequencies, thus disturbing the dron’s flight route and they fall down to the ground. The challenge is to do so without compromising on communication from Israeli side.
Whatever, precision emissils make up the greatest threat to Israel’s security, assessing limor. The situation is so serious that the chief of staff and his deputy have it as their permanent personal responsibility. It means routine briefings, planning and closely monitoring the development on both sides of the border.
The overall view of IDF is now that “precision” threat is tolerable and can be countered. The calculation takes into account the missiles that Hezbollah has in their arsenal, their injury threat, the intelligence image that can facilitate the possibility of destroying them at the beginning of the next war, the army’s ability to disturb and capture missile attacks. The assessment is that a few precision missiles will manage to achieve their goals, the question is how much damage they will cause?
Combined the calculation forms the magic number that will be Israel’s red line. Crossed the red line, IDF will initiate preventive attacks, it is estimated that it will cost fewer human life than a future war. So far, Israel has not come with the magic number. According to some experts, the number is 500 precision emissils, others say it is 1,000 missiles. Hezbollah is still far from the numbers, but their plan is ready: They continue to manufacture and smuggle missiles.
those who claim to determine a red line is a bad idea, argue that the situation is dynamic and that Israel continually acquires tools that change the image and the equation. Conversely, the concern is that Israel constantly acclimating itself to a new reality. Israel So while Hezbollah got his fingers in tens of thousands of “stupid” rockets, they could have chosen to do the same when Hezbollah got hold of precision emissils.
The general opinion in IDF and among civil experts is that Israel must define his red lines and the fact that it is still done yet, is a serious problem that requires immediate action.
– If Hezbollah crosses a quantitative or qualitative threshold for precision weapons, we have to act against it. It is a serious decision, but one from which we cannot run away, says Oberst Lieutenant Eran Niv, head of IDF’s warfare Methods and Innovation Division to the newspaper Israel Hayom.
– In addition to Iran’s nuclear program, this is the greatest threat to Israel today. It is the scenario trained in all training exercises. Everything is aimed at the threat, but in the meantime we try to act in other creative ways to prevent [Hizbollah] from achieving their goals, adds NIV.
Niv is among those who believe it is imperative for Israel to determine where their red lines go. Not only with regard to quantity but quality. For example, if Hezbollah should surpass from smuggling of precision components for mass production of precision emissils in Lebanon. “We have to mark a quantitative and qualitative threshold, as if we cross it, require us to go over to other actions,” Underlined Niv.
Repeal of sanctions against Iran – Hazardous for Israel
Hizbollah is not there yet, but it can quickly change. Repeal of economic sanctions imposed on Iran, as part of the United States’ expected return to the nuclear agreement, will free up considerable funds for Iran’s henchmen in the region, primarily to Hezbollah. If Tehran and Beirut sense that Americans limit Israeli activity or support the Jewish state less, they could feel brave enough to speed up and greatly expand the precision power project. Also read: – No deal with Iran is better than a bad deal. – Israel cannot accept a situation where Iran comes closer nuclear weapons, the Yaakov writes Amidror, senior researcher at Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
– Hezbollah looks at us as we look at them – as someone planning to attack them. They want their precision skills to deter us. A few thousands more missiles don’t change anything, but precision emissils are with their eyes a GameChange . And because they are struggling to smuggle precision components from Syria, they will produce them in Lebanon, says Middle East expert, Professor Eyal Zisser, from Tel Aviv University.
former Mid-Chef Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin currently leading the head of the Institute for National Security Studies, is a prominent voice that encourages Israel to define its red lines now.
– We must examine and identify the right timing to take steps towards the precision weapon project in this context that it can trigger a broad fusion. Hundreds of precision emissils in the hands of the Iranian axis, especially Hezbollah can cause extensive civilian damage in Israel and lamb vital systems. It is a strategic threat that must not be allowed to develop, adding Yadlin.
According to Yadlin, the landmark moment in terms of precision threat, the Iranian missile attack against Saudi Arabia’s main oil refinery in September 2019, which temporarily closed approx. 50% of the country’s oil production.
Yadlin believes that if Hezbollah speeds up his arsenal project, Israel needs to consider preventive attacks to stop the threat. According to other defense officials, Israel must not initiate such attack as it would certainly trigger war. They believe that Israel should consider “exploiting the possibility” for a limited escalation at the northern border of targeting Hezbollah’s precision capacity.
The Iranians realized that precision is crucial, and decided to put all forces in it on all fronts. It is harder for them without soleimani, but with Yadlin’s words: “The train has left the station” and beyond that you can in the end also reach Lebanon.
– Israel’s situation is not the same as the situation of Saudi. We have better intelligence and we will in all probably know that an attack is on the way [the oil refinery attack] before it happens. We have impressive preventative abilities, and we can attack before we are attacked, we have detection and defensive capabilities, but the threat is generally problematic and requires a strategic change, says Yadlin.
Yadlin comes with four possible strategies: deterrence (getting nasrallah to understand that the firing of precision emissils against Israel will lead to the destruction of Lebanon), defense (greater investment in interceptors and other systems), air strikes and other operations (as simply delays the inevitable) a preventive attack (which removes the ability of Hezbollah, but opens Israel for a broad war).
– The problem is that deterrence can be eroded or ceasing if Hezbollah acquires a large stock of precision missiles, and the defense is incredibly expensive and may prove insufficient against massive attacks. Therefore, discussion should be about prevention. In theory we must do it all the time, but we already have to start thinking about the next stage. It is possible that we will need to implement the Begin doctrine (to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons in the Middle East) against the precise missile threat too, Yadlin says.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Itai brown, former head of Mids intelligence department, who wrote the annual situation assessment published by Insays, has other view:
– The precision emissils are really an extraordinary strong threat, but they are not nuclear weapons. Precision emissils are not the end of everything and are not out of Hezbollah’s perspective. They are part of a wider picture, he says to Israel Hayom.
– Hezbollah does not want a prolonged war they will inflict us with a painful blow that shortens the war and mitigates its consequences. To achieve it, all they need is to fire a small number of precision mi
Ssiler in the middle of massive shoot exchanges and infiltration into Israel.
Perhaps all they need is a precise missile that hits a power plant or knesset to achieve the effect they want, explain brown.
If Hezbollah continues to produce precision emissils in their current pace, it will take them three years to reach Israel’s red line.
But if you put the pace up or exceed for the production of precision emissils in Lebanon, the time frame is significantly reduced.
In the scenario, Israel needs to decide whether they will act in order to eradicate the largest and most dangerous conventional threat they face or whether they must live with it.